The LDP Will Win Again – But Not Because They Deserve To

It’s 17:21 on election day in Japan, and in less than three hours, we’ll know whether the media’s breathless predictions of a “knife-edge” election actually materialise. Spoiler alert: they won’t.

Let’s cut through the nonsense. Yes, the LDP has been caught with their hands in the cookie jar (again) with this latest funding scandal. And yes, people are angry about it. But here’s what the media talking heads seem to have missed – while they’re obsessing over political funding irregularities, ordinary Japanese voters are more worried about whether they can afford their weekly shop.

The opposition parties, particularly the CDP under Noda, are making a meal of this scandal. But where are their actual policies? Where’s their vision for fixing the economy? For dealing with inflation? For creating jobs? *crickets*

The media keeps banging on about how Ishiba called this snap election to “minimise damage from the scandal.” Sorry, but that’s complete rubbish. He had another year up his sleeve – if minimising scandal damage was the goal, why not wait until the story had faded from memory? The opposition’s bleating about not having time to coordinate their response is equally nonsensical. If they couldn’t see a snap election coming, they’re in the wrong business.

Here’s my prediction: The LDP will win with a reduced majority, but a majority nonetheless. The CDP will pick up some seats, as will the Communists (though they’ve got no hope of actual power). The real battle to watch is between Ishin and Komeito in Western Japan, particularly in the Kansai region. If Ishin manages to knock off several Komeito candidates in their traditional strongholds, that’s the only scenario that might – might – push the LDP into minority government. But I wouldn’t bet my yen on it.

The truth Is, the LDP’s continued dominance isn’t about their brilliance – it’s about the opposition’s consistent uselessness. Since the '90s, the left has failed to present any kind of coherent alternative. The CDP is currently shifting right under Noda, making cooperation with the Communists or Social Democrats impossible. They’re all too busy fighting each other to present a united front against the LDP.

So yes, the LDP will likely lose some seats tonight. Yes, people are fed up with their scandals and shenanigans. But when voters enter those polling booths, they’re thinking about their wallets more than political funding declarations. And on the economy, the opposition is offering nothing but criticism and vague promises.

In three hours, we’ll know if I’m right. But after decades of watching Japanese politics, I’d say the smart money’s on another LDP government – not because they deserve it, but because the opposition still hasn’t figured out how to be a credible alternative.

The polls close at 20:00 JST.

Watch this space.